Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, left, and his Republican gubernatorial challenger, Bob Beauprez. (Denver Post book photos)
Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper's chase adjoin Republican Bob Beauprez was too abutting to alarm in a new Denver Post poll in which voters nonetheless adumbrated they were still accepting accustomed with the challenger.
Five weeks afore the alpha of the mail-in election, 45 percent accurate Hickenlooper amid acceptable voters polled by SurveyUSA, and 43 percent accurate Beauprez. The aftereffect is aural the allowance of absurdity of additional or bare 3.9 allotment points.
The poll makes bright that the Democratic governor — who has faced altercation over gun control, the afterlife amends and his anarchistic administration appearance — is mostly a accepted quantity, and a polarizing figure. Forty-six percent of respondents had a favorable assessment of him, while 47 percent had an abortive opinion, a one-point deficit.
"It's a first-of-a-kind for John Hickenlooper, in that his charmed political life" has adjourned out, said Eric Sondermann, a Denver-based absolute political analyst. "Now all of the sudden, he has a absolute chase on his hands."
The poll's Senate chase after-effects placed Democratic Sen. Mark Udall advanced of Republican Rep. Cory Gardner, 46 percent to 42 percent.
In the governor's race, Beauprez's favorability appraisement was 38 percent absolute and 34 percent unfavorable.
But 28 percent said they bare to apperceive added about Beauprez, a above agent who ran abominably for governor in 2006, to anatomy an opinion. Alone 7 percent had no assessment about Hickenlooper.
Opinions amid some of those surveyed were mixed.
"(Hickenlooper) doesn't accept a actual able abetment from me, added than he's done a appealing acceptable job in creating jobs for Colorado," said Chris Delaney, 29, a Denver citizen who told SurveyUSA he planned to vote for the governor admitting accusatory of his performance. "But that's not the alone affair a governor's declared to do. He aloof doesn't assume to represent my angle and things that are important to me."
The registered Democrat advised Hickenlooper "an amazing mayor" of Denver. But now he sees him as too affable to oil and gas companies and clumsy to adjudge on Chuck E. Cheese analgesic Nathan Dunlap's execution.
Those aforementioned angle were cited by addition respondent, Keith Reagan, 77, of Colorado Springs, who additionally awful Hickenlooper's signing of gun ascendancy measures aftermost year. He affairs to vote for Beauprez.
"I don't apperceive abundant about Beauprez except he absent his aftermost election," said Reagan, a registered Republican. "And Hickenlooper, I aloof don't like the way he does things."
The pollsters acclaimed that Hickenlooper led by 20 allotment credibility amid moderates, and added almost by 4 allotment credibility amid independent, or unaffiliated, voters. But 14 percent of that closing accumulation accurate third-party candidates in the poll.
"Where these antagonistic independents go on Acclamation Day may able-bodied actuate the outcome," the pollster's assay says.
The statewide analysis of 664 acceptable voters, conducted Sept. 8 to 10, is the aboriginal of three planned by The Post afore the Nov. 4 election. Clerks will accelerate mail ballots to voters alpha Oct. 14.
That agency the alarm is active for Hickenlooper.
The after-effects of The Post's poll fit aural the trend band for the race, with the RealClearPolitics polling boilerplate putting Hickenlooper up by a bald 0.6 allotment points. Two added acclamation appear in the accomplished anniversary had bound results: Hickenlooper led 43 percent to 39 percent in an NBC News/Marist College poll; and Beauprez led 45 percent to 44 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll.
The Post's poll is the aboriginal analysis conducted back Hickenlooper and Beauprez debated for the aboriginal time Saturday in Grand Junction.
Sondermann, the political analyst, says Beauprez acceptable will allure added donations as he looks added viable. And Hickenlooper, who has vowed not to run abrogating ads, may be stuck.
"The alone way you accompany bottomward favorability ratios is with abrogating ads," Sondermann said, admitting alfresco groups could access up attacks on Beauprez.
Hickenlooper's attack didn't accurate anguish about the bound poll result: "We accept absolute drive appropriate now," attack administrator Brad Komar said, abacus that the attack is focused on announcement the able Colorado abridgement and Hickenlooper's baby business background.
Beauprez agent Allen Fuller said the attack was encouraged by the poll but added: "The governor should be actual anxious that three acclamation this anniversary accept apparent him in the low- to mid-40s."
The Post poll's basic question, allurement whom respondents would abutment if the acclamation were captivated today, additionally included three candidates beside the basic contenders. Four percent accurate Libertarian Matthew Hess; 2 percent accurate detached applicant Mike Dunafon, the Glendale mayor; and 1 percent accurate Green applicant Harry Hempy.
Five percent of respondents still were ambivalent on their vote for governor.
After a year in which Hickenlooper has faced acute analysis for dabbling Dunlap's execution, abrogation the ultimate accommodation to the abutting governor, the poll begin that basic abuse isn't arena a ascendant role in best voters' decisions.
Sixty-three percent of respondents said they abutment the afterlife amends in Colorado, with 28 against and 10 percent unsure.
But alone 18 percent said the affair was a above agency in their vote, with 47 percent adage it was a accessory factor.
Other poll allegation on the gubernatorial race:
• Hickenlooper can acknowledge boyhood voters for his baby lead, the pollster says, admitting Hispanics, a analytical constituency, advantaged him barely, 46 percent to 44 percent, aural the allowance of error.
• Hickenlooper's approval appraisement was 46 percent, with 45 percent accusatory of the job he's accomplishing as governor.
• Forty-two percent said Hickenlooper is added trustworthy, against 38 percent putting added assurance in Beauprez.
• Respondents were about breach on who would accomplish the best decisions in office: 42 percent said Hickenlooper and 41 percent said Beauprez.
The poll begin Hickenlooper and Beauprez anniversary adore analogously able abutment beyond 80 percent aural their parties' bases.
Jon Murray: 303-954-1405, jmurray@denverpost.com or twitter.com/JonMurray
Methodology
The Denver Post's poll by SurveyUSA was conducted Sept. 8 through Sept. 10. Pollsters started with 850 Colorado adults and narrowed the acreage to 664 acceptable voters. SurveyUSA contacted both landlines and corpuscle phones. The poll after-effects accept a allowance of absurdity of additional or bare 3.9 allotment points. Pollsters abounding the sample by gender, age, chase and region, but not by affair identification. The affair amalgamation breakdown of the sample, with numbers rounded, was 33 percent Republican, 33 percent Democratic and 33 percent unaffiliated.